What a wild ride for the Sedona Real Estate market in the past couple of years. The market recovered from Covid in the late spring of 2020 and began to build incredible momentum that carried through to mid-year 2021. Sputtering a bit in summer and early fall of 2021, the housing market appeared to finally have run out of gas. But, in October it revved up once more and finished the year strong, setting a number of new records in the process.
The final total of Single-family Residence sales fell a bit shy of 2020’s all-time record of 631. 2021 came in at 623. But, the Median Recorded Sales Price jumped an astounding 35 percent, from $650,000 to $875,000. There were no foreclosures nor short-sales for the year. The Sales-to-List Price Ratio pushed up t0 101 percent. And, Days-On-Market dropped from 151 to 85. All unprecedented numbers.
SFH Median Recorded Sales Price
Sales-to-List Price Ratio
Million dollar market
Even with the slowdown in homes sales in the 3rd Quarter of 2021, the Median Recorded Selling Price rose $25,000 between July and December. Credit extremely low and diminishing supply. Typically, over 200 in years past, the number of Single-family Residences stayed less than 50 for most of 2021 and had dropped to a mere 25 by year’s end, while Pending Sales (evidence of Demand) remained well above normal. By early February 2022 there were 28, but with only five homes available for under $1 million in all of the Sedona area.
Single-family Home Sales are down about 9% so far in 2022 – thanks to that abysmally low inventory of available homes – and their Median Recorded Sales Price is now at an all-time high of $1,050,000. The Average Price Per Square Foot is up to $489. All that is based on a relatively small population of sales, so we’ll see if those levels stay with us as more sales gives us increasingly reliable stats in the year ahead.
For record setting, nothing quite compares to the Luxury Home Sector. It was astonishing in 2020 to see 120 single-family homes sell for over $1 million – plus 11 townhomes. The previous record, set in 2019, had been 56. Then, 2021 blew in with an off-the-charts, 227, plus 9 townhomes. The Average Price per Square Foot of those luxury homes jumped 27 percent from $392 to $497.
For the new year, the 22 Luxury Homes Sales are 20% ahead of 2021 and the per square foot cost is already up to $595.
With the short supply of Active Listings and their imposing Average $/Square Foot of $651, it would seem safe to assume that we’ll see a further escalation of the luxury home prices in 2022.
The Condo/Townhome Sector did not disappoint in 2021. Sales increased 18 percent in 2021 and the MRSP rose 30 percent to $498,000 with an Average $/Square Foot of $370. Days-On-Market were a mere 79 and the Sale-to-List Price Ratio was an impressive 102%.
In early February there were only 4 Active Listings and 8 Pending Sales. Nevertheless, there were 17 sales versus 10 for the same period in 2021.
With the inventory ultra-high-end town-homes sold-out by the end of 2021, the 2022 availability is now in what was the upper-mid to lower-end range. So, now we’re seeing a Median Recorded Sales Price of $570,000 and a cost per square foot of $383.
The Vacant Land Sector enjoyed a phenomenal first half of the year – its 223 sales tripled 2020’s showing and the MRSP jumped 25%. The second half of 2021, saw a significant stall, however, with only 90 sales and the MRSP remained constant at $250,000 through the end of the year. Much of that seemed to have to do with huge jumps in construction costs. As supply chain woes ease, the expectation is that costs will deescalate and the land market will revive once more.
The winter season has already seen an uptick in sales of high-end lots, but only about half of the sales we saw through mid-February 2021. That said Pending Sales for parcels has doubled since December, so there is a good bump coming in Closed Sales.
2022 and Beyond
For 2022 and a bit beyond, a recent summit of National Association of Realtor industry experts has predicted a scenario much like what we saw in the 4th Quarter: Continued severe inventory shortages and relatively strong buyer demand resulting in modestly rising prices. They’re thinking in the 5 to 7% range. And, mortgage rates moving up to 3.7%.
Locally, Zillow is forecasting the values will rise 14.5% over 2022.
Those predictions can’t account for possible major economic, social, and political upheavals that could throw them off, but at this point we seem to have more of the same inventory and price trend in store for at least the next year or so.
Because of its attractiveness to West Coast wealthy refugees, Sedona has outdone the national market by substantial margins over the past year and that is likely to persist. So, favorable auguries for sellers and challenges for buyers.