Sedona Market Update April 2024

In our last Quarterly Report, we chronicled the sluggishness of the previous year and a half but noted some signs of life as we moved into the Winter Season. Typically, that’s our slowest time of the year. January 2024, however, gave us a sense that something of a rally was getting underway. Buyers were showing up and bringing with them a refreshing sense of consumer confidence that was translating into a boost in sales as well as prices. Indeed, by the end of March and the 1st Quarter 2024, the number of Single-family Residence sales was up 18% over 1st Quarter 2023 and the Median Recorded Sales Price popped 24% from $937,500 to $1,162,500.

Much of that confidence was based on rather exuberant projections of the Fed lowering interest rates as much as six times in the year ahead. But, with the robustness of the National economy in early spring and historically low unemployment, the Fed  changed its tune and the prospects of interest rates coming down dropped appreciably. And with it, so did Buyer enthusiasm, especially when interest rates actually started rising again and the stock market went into a slide.



Pending home sales down YTD 2023 vs 2024


MRSP for 1st Quarter 2024


Luxury buyers, particularly, seem to have headed to the sidelines for the time being while those in the sub-million-dollar market kept up a decent purchasing pace. As of April 20th, single-family homes sales are already ahead of the March number even though Pending Sales (homes under-contract) are currently down 33% year-over-year. But, the Median Recorded Sales Price for April is down 20% – primarily because the number of million-dollar sales is down 18%.  

One development that has helped sales is the resurgence of inventory, giving buyers more choice. At the end of 1st Quarter 2023, there were 89 homes active on the market. This year there were 148, a 66% increase. For a more :normal” frame of reference, there were 190 in 2019. That healthy and helpful trend will increasing draw buyers in the months ahead even if mortgage rates stay relatively high for a while.

Always the Wild Hare Sector of the Sedona Housing Market, Condo and Townhome sales are down about a third from 2023 partly thanks to a lack of inventory early on. That’s changed dramatically since inventory there is now up 118% over last year; so expect to see sales kick up as the year progresses.

The Median Recorded Selling Price has also dropped precipitously, 28%. But that’s a statistical anomaly thanks to a complete lack of townhome inventory at Seven Canyons and The Cottages at Coffeepot so far this year. In 1st Quarter 2023 there were 8 sales over $1 million there. None this year. That’s a prime example of how the MRSP can be skewed by an inordinate number of sales in various price ranges and a small sample size.

Usually, the laggard of the Sedona Real Estate Market, the Vacant Land Sector is showing notable improvement in the number of sales over 2023 and a modest jump in the Median Recorded Sales Price. As of April 20th, its 31 sales is 35% ahead of last year’s number and the MRSP is up 13% to $295,000.  Again, caution is advised in over-relying on those stats because we have such a small sample size. Nevertheless it is good to see a positive trend there.