Statistics for 1st Quarter 2025 gave evidence of a March rally reversing a listless winter.  By March 31st, home sales were 5 percent higher than in 2024, giving rise to optimism for the spring high season. That quickly evaporated in the face of dramatic economic gyrations and threat of recession or even Stagflation that has accompanied the tariff/trade war controversy.  Financial markets are averse to unpredictability.  Real estate markets are much slower to react than Wall Street. So, it is surprising that, by the end of April, Single-Family Residence sales had slipped abruptly  from a positive-5% to a minus-9%.  Buyers, perhaps worried about their 401K’s, seemed hesitant to commit to major expenditures, especially ones for discretionary purchases like second homes. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Confidence has dropped 32 percent since January. For “Working Wealthy” Americans, earning over $100,000 per year, the index for April was at its lowest level in seven years.

Just as demand declined, supply accelerated. At the end of April 2018 and 2019 there were 171 homes for sale. This year there are 193, 13% higher than the Pre-Pandemic “normal.”

The Law of Supply and Demand continues  to be operative.  With supply  up and demand down, home prices have taken a hit this spring.  Compared with lackluster 2024, the average cost per square foot for single-family homes in the Greater Sedona/VOC area declined 2% and the Median Recorded Sales Price was down 3%. And, according to Altos Research, 39 percent of listings had price reductions. Meanwhile,  days-on-market for closed home sales rose 14 percent.

Although none of this is welcome news for sellers impatient with the slow market, it does bring home the case for pricing flexibility, especially as the Dog days of Summer loom. Buyers are certainly out there, but they tend to be a bit fearful and increasingly looking for bargains.  That said, well-priced properties do sell.

For buyers, the lull presents an opportunity. They shouldn’t expect a steal, though. There are hardly any distressed sales in Sedona these days.  But, excellent values exist in abundance. That window of opportunity for the next couple of months or so may well provide the chance to score an excellent value that we may never see again.  Then again, both sellers and buyers are well-advised to concern themselves less with timing the market than with making  moves based on their lifestyle needs and dreams. The former is always chancy at best and likely not worth delaying what one really wants in this life.

Those anticipating a recessionary real estate crash should know that of the six recessions since 1980, only the Great Recession of 2008, caused by the massive melt-down of the lending industry,  saw a significant drop in home prices; 19.7 percent in that case. Four others saw homes increase by an average of 5.6 percent. So, market-timers can’t even rely on recessions for help.

View Historical Sedona Market Statistics Here

Regarding the Townhome-Condo Sector:

So far in 2025, compared with 2024, Single-Family Residence sales have, from 1 January through 9 May, swooned 9% while Condo/Townhome sales  have shot up an astounding 31%!  And, instead of the -2% Price per Square Foot slippage that we saw for SFR figures between those timeframes, Condo & Townhomes saw a 7% increase. Go figure. Yet, it does tell us something about the resilience of that sector of the housing market. 

Regarding  the VACANT RESIDENTIAL LOTS

As Sedona housing prices soared to unprecedented heights during the Pandemic Years, the bright spot for buyers was the Vacant Land Sector. Back in 2006, the Median Recorded Selling Price for residential lots in Sedona was $519,000. That started coming back to earth in the first half of 2007 and had plummeted to $115,000 by 2011. In May 2025 that figure stands at $300,000 – a marked rebound from 2011 but obviously  far short of 2006’s $519,000.

In 2021, with existing home inventory drying up, many prospective buyers decided to build what they really wanted and vacant land sales boomed – tripling the number of sales in 2020.  Since Midyear 2022, however, we’ve seen a significant downturn in land sales thanks, in part, to the general market and , in part, to sharply rising building costs. 

That said, what is also going down is the supply of vacant land.  In the spring of 2019, there were 301 Active Land  Listings .  In 2025 there are 112.  And the Median Recorded Sales Price is up 13% even though sales are down by 37% from 2025.

That presents a strong buying opportunity for astute investors.  Expect the price point to resume its upward trend as inventory continues to dwindle.  Eventually, as the non-renewable supply of vacant land is exhausted, we’ll see prices sky-rocket from these bargain levels.  Keep in mind that vacant land is a non-renewable resource. Sedona is completely surrounded by U.S. National Forest and almost all the land that can be developed pretty much has been.

Meanwhile, we are still seeing Sedona luxury lots selling at huge discounts compared with the prices they fetched in 2006. At some high-end gated communities, you can still find luxury lots starting in $300,000’s. Back in 2006 those would have been priced at $700,000 or $800,000. More commonly, though, you can expect to pay $400,000 to $600,000 for a really good luxury lot and well over a million or two for something truly extraordinary.