2025 Year in Review  &  2026 Projections

Sedona's housing market showed notable improvement in the second half of 2025, though transaction levels remain well below pre-pandemic volumes. Single-family sales increased 6.5 percent to 423 transactions. 2025 made a promising start but stumbled severely in April and  May before rebounding in June. December posted 51 closings versus 39 the prior year. However, pending sales finished relatively flat, suggesting potential softening in early 2026 closings. Indeed, January 2026 home sales were down about 9 percent year-over-year in the first three weeks but rallied  impressively to finish the month 7 percent ahead of January 2025.

Price appreciation presented a nuanced picture. The median single-family sold price reached $1,149,000, up 6 percent year-over-year, while the average price per square foot increased just 2 percent to $526. This divergence reflects shifting product mix rather than uniform appreciation.

Homes over $1 million posted 17 percent sales growth to 254 transactions with a median of $1.5 million and $590 per square foot. Year-end pending contracts carried a $3.8 million median list price. The City of Sedona commanded $567 per square foot versus Village of Oak Creek's $443—a 28 percent premium, giving buyers more bang-for-the-buck in the VOC .

Condos/townhomes surged 33 percent in sales volume, though median prices softened to $510,000. Land sales declined to 83 transactions while median prices rose to $302,500.

Current conditions show tightening dynamics. According to Altos Research, Sedona's Market Action Index stands at 33  for The City - indicating a slight seller's advantage—and 29 for the VOC- a slight Buyer’s market.

View Historical Sedona Market Statistics Here

National forecasts diverge significantly. Realtor.com projects conservative growth: home prices rising 2.2 percent, existing-home sales up 1.7 percent, and mortgage rates averaging 6.3 percent. National Association of Realtors’ Chief Economist Lawrence Yun forecasts 4 percent price appreciation and 14 percent sales increase with rates declining toward 6 percent. "After three years of flat home sales, a solid double-digit percentage increase is expected in 2026," Yun stated, citing higher inventory and improved affordability.

Sedona's dynamics differ from national trends. While national inventory is projected to rise 8.9 percent, Sedona's inventory is still below pre-pandemic levels giving  sellers a slight advantage to outperform national price projections.

We project single-family home price appreciation of 3-5 percent for 2026—above conservative forecasts but below NAR's scenario.  Mortgage rates in the low 6 percent range should stimulate modest yet increased buyer activity.

The luxury sector could see 4-6 percent appreciation as buyers compete for limited inventory. The $3.8 million median for pending contracts supports this outlook. Our expectation is for condos/townhomes to see 12-18 percent sales growth as buyers seek affordable entry points.

Key variables are mortgage rates and inventory.  If rates decline  and supply remains low, pricing pressure could exceed projections. Conversely, if pending sales weakness signals soft demand, appreciation may track closer to conservative forecasts. Sedona's fundamentals—spectacular scenery, limited supply (we’re an island surrounded by National Forest), and affluent demographics—do provide price support, particularly for the long term. In any case, it’s a great time to be a buyer.