Despite a peculiar October and November slowdown – 9.4% fewer sales than in the same period in 2017, the Sedona Real Estate Market remains on track to break more records. For the first time since 2005, single-family homes sales are likely to crack the “500 Ceiling” in 2018. That’s only happened three times in Sedona Real Estate history: 2003, 2004, and 2005. 2005 saw 582, only to drop to 385 in 2006. The strongest year since then was 2017, when 466 sales were recorded. We blew by that right after Thanksgiving this year, to a 12% lead over 2017 by the end of November. By then, the Median Recorded Sales Price was back up to $560,000 – 7% ahead of last year.
480
Sedona home sales year to date
51
Luxury home sold year to date
Luxury Home market poised to set all-time record
Impressive as the general housing market has been, the Luxury Home Market is poised to set an all-time record for sales. That’s astonishing because that sector, strong as it had been in the first nine months of the year, had a fall slump for over a month. From late September to late October, there were zero closed sales. Then, it erupted for a shocking 11 completed transactions between Halloween and Thanksgiving. A total of 50, up to that point. We’re at 51 right on the 5th of December. Another ceiling cracker. Only twice previously have we seen that figure surpassed: 2005 (52 sales) and 2006 (55 sales). If the 2006 record is broken, it’ll mean a sales jump of about 50% from 2017 to 2018. Astounding numbers, especially when we’ve seen national and regional declines in existing home sales this year.
We all know that vacant land is a non-renewable resource that is destined to become severely scarce in the not-too-distant future, kicking up prices sharply.
It’s an interesting sector, homes over $1,000,000. Unlike the rest of the Single-family Residence Market, inventories have remained relatively high, thanks to significant new construction. And, for all the sales activity this year, the average cost per square foot – $352 – is up only about 5% over 2017, yet 6% less than in 2016. In fact, prices have been surprisingly stable over the last nine years, ranging from $321 to $375 per square foot. The good news for sellers, though, is that we’re seeing the Cumulative Days on Market drop from over 400 two years ago to 284 recently.
Speaking of eccentric market sectors, Vacant Land continues to confound. 2017 saw the strongest sales numbers since 2005. 2018 is 19% ahead of that, yet the Median Recorded Sales Price doesn’t seem to want to budge from the $150,000 mark that it has sat on all year. And, just to annoy sellers, inventory has increased 9% since last spring. We all know that vacant land is a non-renewable resource that is destined to become severely scarce in the not-too-distant future, kicking up prices sharply. It’s just a puzzlement that it’s taking so long. Increasing City and County fees, material costs, and labor are taking their toll, but the lack of housing inventory would seem to balance that out. In any case, land prices remain a bargain.
All-in-all, uneven as the various market sectors have been, this year has been fascinating and it’s turning out to be one for the record books.