How’s this for an exciting headline: Sedona Real Estate Market Stable!
Stability is a wonderful thing, especially compared to the gut-wrenching swings Sedona real estate experienced in the past decade. But, we don’t have to look very far back to find figures that make the 2015 Sedona housing market look relatively robust. The Sedona Land Market, however, is another story.
The bellwether Single Family Residence Sector is doing just fine, if a bit flat-lined. Sedona sales numbers are just 2.5% ahead of Late-October 2014 – 325 vs. 317. Their Median Recorded Selling Price is up quite modestly: $430,000 versus $425,000 last year. Likewise, the average price per square foot is $218 for the Sedona area compared with $215 in 2014. No worries about a Sedona Real Estate bubble any time soon there.
The Sale-to-List-Price Ratio for Sedona homes has held at 96% for the past three years. That means Sedona home buyers have, on average, negotiated a 4% discount off the final list price – emphasis on “final list price.” The average time on market for the Solds this year is 228 days. That’s inordinately long in an improving economy. In the pre-boom and bust days, 180 days was typical. My sense is that it’s taking longer to sell property because sellers believe the Sedona housing market is much stronger than it actually is and tend to over-price. It often takes a series of price reductions before they finally sell. While this year’s Median Recorded Selling Price is $430,000, the Median List Price of Single Family Residences now on the market is $649,000 – up $50,000 since 2014. A bit of a disconnect there.
Of course, the higher the price, the longer it takes to sell. The average Days-On-Market for Sedona luxury homes is 410. That’s up from 345 days last year. That market sector was gang-busters in the first half of this year with 18 sales and then went dormant – only 3 sales since June. 21 sales through late October 2015 versus 24 in 2014. But, a number of super high end transactions has pulled the price per square foot up to $376 from $316 last year.
Sedona Condos and townhomes are still hot. Sales numbers advanced 12% from 2014 and the median selling price is up 18% to $277,500. Average price per square foot was over $200 in late summer, but has slipped recently to $190. That’s now even with last year’s figure
For vacant land, Sedona sales results have been rather gloomy, especially compared with 2014’s stellar year – down to 87 compared with 113 last year. That’s a 23% drop. And, the median selling price has floated downward to $139,000. It was $150,000 at this point in 2014. The Sedona Land Sector seems very under-priced now and the bargains are there – especially when one considers that vacant land is a non-renewable resource, thanks to Sedona being completely surrounded by U.S. National Forest. If the Law of Supply and Demand means anything, Sedona land and homes on it will have to escalate dramatically in the years ahead as supply inexorably dwindles.
Finally, the best news for sellers is continued disappearance of distressed properties in all sectors, including land. It’s actually hard to find more than two or three foreclosures or short-sales in entire inventory these days. Even two years ago 16% of the home sales were distressed. So, even with ups and downs in various sectors, the overall health of the market is reassuring.